If Da Bears leave, what are the fiscal implications for Chicago?

The departure of the Chicago Bears from Chicago seems all but inevitable. ‎In September 2021, the Chicago Bears signed an agreement for the purpose of acquiring property in Arlington Heights, a suburb roughly 30 minutes from Chicago. The Bears remain under contract to purchase the property, have released a development plan for the property, and are negotiating conditions that must be met to close the sale.[i]

The Bears leaving Chicago would mean terminating the lease to rent Soldier Field early, raising fiscal questions for the city of Chicago: specifically, the Chicago Park District, Illinois taxpayers, and economic activity in downtown Chicago.

First of all, the Chicago Park Districts collects revenue from the Bears and National Football League (“NFL”) to rent out Soldier Field. In FY 2023, the Bears and NFL paid the Chicago Park District over $7 million to rent out the stadium: 1.8 percent of the total park district revenue and 15 percent of Soldier Field’s revenue contribution to the overall park district budget.[ii] If the Bears leave Chicago, this revenue gap will need to be filled, either by repurposing Solider Field or through other Chicago Park District activities and programming.

Additionally, Illinois taxpayers are still on the hook for over $700 million for the 2001 remodel of Solider Field, which was commissioned to appease the Bears management specifically.[iii] The 2001 remodel was a $587 million plan where the Bears and the NFL each chipped in $200 million, with the remaining $387 million to be financed by public bonds and backed by a hotel/motel tax levied in the city of Chicago.[iv]

The latest publicly available data from the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority (“ISFA”), the state authority which managed the Solider Field renovation bond buys, shows that as of 2021, the original 2001 bond buy has been partially refinanced three times, in 2014, 2019, and lastly in 2021.[v] The refinancing was done to reduce the fiscal strain on the city budget since the hotel tax was not fully covering the bond obligations. As shown in Figure 1 below, the result is that the public owes $734 million worth of principal and interest for the bonds, significantly more than the initial $587 million it cost to remodel Soldier Field in the first place.[vi]

There is the additional question of the loss of economic activity in Chicago’s downtown, left by Bears fans who will be headed to watch games and spend money in Arlington Heights instead. This is much less of a concern than the Chicago Park District revenue hole and repaying the 2001 remodel bonds. If the Bears management would require additional public investment in Soldier Field to remain in Chicago, the Bears should leave Chicago. The current body of research on the local economic impact of stadiums has shown that the belief that stadiums have an economic impact that matches the amount of money that city residents pay to subsidize them is largely unfounded.[vii] The public has already invested significantly in Soldier Field on behalf of the Bears, and it would be fiscally responsible to continue to spend public money with little to no benefit to the local economy.

The Bears' current rent contract for Soldier Field terminates following the 2033 football season. It would cost them $84 million dollars to break the contract in 2026, which is not significant to the Bears management, considering that the Arlington Heights stadium development would likely cost over $2 billion.[viii] So, what will the city need to do if and when the Bears head to Arlington Heights?

The Chicago Park District should be able to fill its 1.8 percent revenue hole by using Solider Field for other activities, such as concerts, and potentially implementing additional programming. For context, park district camps brought in about $8 million in revenue in 2023, more than the Bear’s Solider Field rental fee.[ix]

The Soldier Field remodel bond repayments will be more difficult to cover, though the bond repayments were an issue if the Bears are playing Soldier Field or not. The last of the remodel bonds mature in 2032, and the city of Chicago needs a comprehensive plan to meet those payments since the hotel tax is not covering the full cost of the payments.

[i] “Arlington Park | Chicago Bears Official Website.” Accessed January 9, 2023. https://www.chicagobears.com/arlington-park/.

[ii] I) “2023 Budget Appropriations.” Chicago Park District, n.d. https://assets.chicagoparkdistrict.com/s3fs-public/documents/departments/budget/2023%20Budget%20Appropriations.pdf, ii) CTBA Analysis of Chicago Park District 2023 Budget Appropriations.

[iii] “2021 Illinois Sports Authority Annual Report,” n.d. https://www.isfauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2021-Annual-Report.pdf.

[iv] Rogers, Phil. “Taxpayers Still Owe $640M on 2002 Soldier Field Renovation.” NBC Chicago (blog). Accessed January 9, 2023. https://www.nbcchicago.com/investigations/taxpayers-still-owe-640m-on-2002-soldier-field-renovation/2981068/.

[v] “2021 Illinois Sports Authority Annual Report,” n.d. https://www.isfauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2021-Annual-Report.pdf.

[vi] “2021 Illinois Sports Authority Annual Report,” n.d. https://www.isfauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2021-Annual-Report.pdf.

[vii]Wolla, Scott A. “The Economics of Subsidizing Sports Stadiums.” Accessed January 9, 2023. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2017-05-01/the-economics-of-subsidizing-sports-stadiums/.

[viii] Smith, Michael David. “Report: Bears Can Affordably Break Their Soldier Field Lease in 2026.” ProFootballTalk (blog), July 2, 2021. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/07/02/report-bears-can-affordably-break-their-soldier-field-lease-in-2026/.

[ix] I) “2023 Budget Appropriations.” Chicago Park District, n.d. https://assets.chicagoparkdistrict.com/s3fs-public/documents/departments/budget/2023%20Budget%20Appropriations.pdf, ii) CTBA Analysis of Chicago Park District 2023 Budget Appropriations.